Cycles of history and historian's puzzles

I have posted on my blog about how history gets repeated with amazing regularity here.

March 5, 1946, Fulton, Missouri, Winston Churchill made his historic speech "Iron Curtain", a precursor of the ensuing Cold War. here

September 18, 2008, Washington DC, German Marshall Fund, Condoleezza Rice has made her speech on US-Russian Relations, a precursor of yet another open 'War' between the two countries. here

Puzzling and disconcerting...

Hopes high too soon

These last 4 or 5 years a lot of people have been wondering whether the Cold War is renewed... Pausing and thinking about it leads to an even more thought-provoking conclusion that perhaps it never ended. The Bush Administration's ambitions about world superiority and continued presence of the NATO in the region when the Warsaw Pact disintegrated and the Berlin wall came down refreshed the deep-seated insecurity of Russia. Putin's leadership restored the Russian sense of national pride and brought a set of ambitions surrounding prospects of world leadership. Now continued expansion of the NATO and probable joining of Georgia and Ukraine is troubling to Russians. Medvedev in tune with Putin has reiterated his concerns (for a story). What has been going on in Georgia and Ukraine in these last couple of decades stems in large part from Moscow's unwillingness to 'surrender' its radar influence on these former republics, determined to follow the political schedule and agenda of the United States. Naturally, these two republics will be hot spots for a long time because of the division between pro-Russian and pro-American philosophies. Some of the Central Asian republics and the Caucasus will also be included, specifically Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.

Wasn't this story dominating during the entire Cold War? Each superpower fought for bringing others into its sphere of influence in opposition to the other. This whole mentality is continuing... We took a sigh of big relief when the Cold War was 'announced' to have been over... While the Soviet Union is gone and will exist only on the historic maps, Russia/Moscow as the focal center remains as a player...

Cold War--over?

The US realpolitik foreign policy under Bush and the Iraq war have come at a huge price. The astute commentators are pointing to the renewal of the Cold War. The relationship between Russia and US are at its lowest since the 90s. The recent Caspian summit among Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan where the involved countries have made progress in discussing the division of the seabed and oil in the region among themselves to the exclusion of any 'outsiders' has alarmed the US (here). Moreover, the statements by Putin at the summit that 'use of force' in the region is absolutely unacceptable in the face of Pentagon's talks with respect to the Iran nuclear project are in stark opposition to the US plans (here).

Also, the recent diplomatic meeting between US and Russia has been so unsuccessful that BBC called the relationship a 'Lukewarm war.' Well, Russia is alarmed in a major way with the Bush administration's attempts to place nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe. This is in breach of the promises made in the 80s between Gorbachev and Reagan, stipulated in bilateral treaties. The US reasoning that those weapons are to protect against Iran is of no avail, because Iran currently does not possess nuclear weapons. So, Russia is taking this move as directed against herself.

The oil-rich reserves targeted by all developed countries in the Middle East and Caspian seabed are an important reason behind these developments. But it is also Russia's dissatisfaction with the US superpower status. The US influence in the Caucasus, specifically in Georgia has increased. The Caucasus historically was a major stronghold for Russia, as a territory where it could protect its land mass from attacks. As a country constantly invaded, Russia's mentality is insecure and defensive. On the other hand, US also has become increasingly insecure since the 9/11.

Personalities do matter in politics. Gorbachev and Reagan were idealists relative to Putin and Bush, both realists. Of course, these labels should not be taken literally and Putin's legacy for Russia will probably be different from Bush's for America. It is not for me to judge. The national polls of Russian and American peoples' perception of their presidents is a beginning-point. The popularity of one is in stark contrast with the unpopularity of the other.

Is the Cold War really over? Perhaps we jumped to conclusions when we promulgated so... Or perhaps its end was contingent on parties' willingness to abide by their promises with full commitment...

Sputnik

Just like the 9/11 shook the world, the launch of the Soviet Sputnik into cosmos shook the world on October 4, 1957. On that day the Soviets launched the first artificial Sputnik into space. On April 12, 1961 Gagarin, the first man ever was sent to cosmos, further shaking the world. The era of human conquering of the outer space began... The launch of the Sputnik was done by the military and was directed by the great academician Sergei Korolyov.

The US was in flames. Eisenhower was under a siege to resign. The US politicians who were not taking the atomic bomb of the Soviets seriously now had to rethink and reconsider the Soviet potential for hegemony. This event marked a new era in the Cold War and influenced the US in further restructuring of its domestic policies to countermand these developments. John F. Kennedy was to set the goal for sending America to the Moon... It was also John F. Kennedy who was able to courageously stop the Soviets placing nuclear weapons in Cuba. The Cuban Missile Crisis showcase was perhaps the closest that the world came to the nuclear war...

But looking back at these events, it is really instructive to learn how the great powers were able to influence and 'check and balance' each other by constant challenge... Challenge is good (as long as non-violent) because it makes one search inside and learn the truth... Unfortunately, the US as a superpower, while challenged in a major way by Islamic fundamentalists at 9/11, has not really searched inside and has not really learned the truth... It has been ignoring the rest of the world for more than a decade and has increasingly become isolated as a world leader... We are in need of new leadership that can indeed redefine and repaint the image of the US... Who can take up that enormous task? Will the American people choose the right person this time? Who is the right person when people have vastly different understandings about global leadership and foreign policy? When the general population is misinformed and not fully educated about issues driving this world...

Margaret Thatcher

Margaret Hilda Thatcher, Baroness Thatcher (Roberts) was born on October 13, 1925 in the town of Grantham in Lincolnshire, England. Brought up as a devout Methodist, she studied chemistry at the Somerville College, Oxford in 1944 (which incidentally made her understand the issues of global warming as a prime minister). Her rise in the political arena was accompanied with a few failures. At the 1950 and 51 elections she fought the safe Labour seat of Dartford and at the time was the youngest ever female Conservative candidate for office.

As a Conservative MP, she was one of the few to support Leo Abse's Bill to decriminalise male homosexuality and voted for David Steel's Bill to legalise abortion. In the run up to the General Election in 1979, Conservatives went on to win a 44-seat majority in the House of Commons and Thatcher became the UK's first female Prime Minister (while also the first female to lead a major political party in the UK). She famously said: "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. And where there is despair, may we bring hope."

The longest continously serving Prime Minister of the UK since Lord Liverpool, she held that post until 1990. Her political and economic philosophy emphasized reduced state intervention, free markets and entrepreneuralism. Privatisation was synonymous with "Thatcherism." For a while, UK was economically prosperous under her leadership, but there were certain problems associated with her antipathy towards trade unions, support for laissez faire economy, unwillingness to promote European integration. Also her support for the death penalty and hard line on the Irish political prisoners were going to alienate the liberal wing in England. Moreover, her party was becoming more and more divisive which contributed to her resignation and the rise of the Labour party.

While she could not be favored by all domestically, as a world leader she was very compassionate. There was a huge earthquake in Armenia in 1988, when my native town Leninakan (now Gyumri) was completely destroyed. There were virtually no buildings left standing. I, a 10 year old then, remember vividly how she personally visited this small city and directed building of an English school and a library named after George Gordon Byron. Even before my family moved to Russia, it was in this library where I got my books to learn English and it was where I learned to read Byron, Shakespeare, Hemingway and Faulkner in the original. I am personally grateful to Margaret Thatcher. I still remember how her non-tinted limousine was circling in the streets of our destroyed city and how she was stopping to waive to people, comforting them with her warmth and empathy.

An ideological supporter of Ronald Reagan in international politics, she played a decisive role in the efforts to end the Cold War. She was the first Western leader to respond warmly to Gorbachev and said about him "a man we can do business with" after a meeting in 1984. Political commentators give most credit for the end of the Cold War to Reagan and Gorbachev. But Margaret Thatcher, a true English lady, with remarkable charisma must also be given serious credit for the determination of Gorbachev to pursue democracy in Russia. Her influence on Gorbachev is well-known. While Winston Churchill, a man, promulgated the "Iron Curtain" officially announcing the beginning of the Cold War, Margaret Thatcher, a woman, brought that curtain down with her charming smile...